台灣人民真的很可憐

　台灣人民真的很可憐。

中國時報 2008.09.05 中國小社論

　前總統匯鉅款到海外，被國際反洗錢組織「抓包」，還把國民當白癡，理不直而氣壯地詭辯。

　陳水扁仍陰魂不散，已夠難過了。哪知現任總統也被鬼附體，言行全然不像五二○前的馬英九。在扁、馬不約而同地「打擊民心士氣」之下，也難怪股市跌跌不休了。

　阿扁的「無恥」，「台開案」後已眾所皆知，他死不認錯，一點都不意外；馬的「無覺」，這次倒讓國人開了眼界。

　「八三○」，在扁家洗錢風暴的陰影下，仍有那麼多民眾走上街頭。只要有點政治敏感度的人，都會感覺到綠營對「主權式微」的焦慮。稍微有點頭腦的人，不會敲鑼打鼓，而以噤聲緩行的方式，調整兩岸政策。

　但，馬卻火上加油，在這時刻拋出「非國與國的特殊關係」。

　阿扁把台灣的內部矛盾激化成敵我衝突，獨立之路愈走愈窄；馬則不先和解島內，只顧和解對岸，和解的高調恐怕也唱不久。

　股市反映的，是市場對政府的信心。這幾天，股市已搖搖欲墜，政府手忙腳亂地救，哪知總統卻反向「信心喊話」，宣示「六三三」須在他連任總統後才能達成。

　坦白，是馬的優點；但，白到「白目」，就不可愛了。

　不管扁的「黑白講」或馬的「坦白講」，現在國人聽來都「白目」到不行。受全民供養的「總統們」，請以蒼生為念，少開尊口吧！

Don’t say another word

The Taiwanese people really are deserving of pity.

The previous President’s money sent overseas has been seized by anti-money laundering organizations and he’s still treating the public like morons, dissembling and spouting sophistry.

Chen Shuibian’s ghost lingering around is already bad enough, but who would have thought the new President would also be caught up in the spell. He certainly doesn’t sound or act like the man before the elections. As Chen and Ma unconsciously work together in harmony to harm the public’s good feelings, it’s no wonder the stock market is plunging with no end in sight.

After the Taiwan Development Corporation insider trading scandal, Chen’s shame was already there for the public to see. He hasn’t made a mistake and this isn’t an accident. Ma’s silence has actually opened the public’s eyes.

On August 30, with the Chen family money-laundering case already leaked, there still were many people marching in the streets. As long as there are people who are politically sensitive, they’ll always feel the Green camp’s worries about the erosion of sovereignty. People with a little more in their heads won’t start beating the drums, but instead will keep a cool head and try to change cross-strait policies.

But, Ma has thrown oil on the fire, and has started to talk about a “Non-State-to-State special relationship.”

Chen has extended Taiwan’s internal conundrum to the level of antagonistic conflict. The longer we walk on the path to independence, the more narrow it appears. Ma, on the other hand, isn’t concerned with first resolving the internal situation, but rather is concerned with resolving the cross-strait situation. His calls for peace may be nearing an end.

The stock market reaction is a reflection of the market’s confidence in the government. These past few days, the market has already taken another dive and the government is scrambling to save it。 Who would have thought the president’s confidence calls would be opposingly matched with announcing his “633” policy needed to wait until his second term to be implemented.

Plain speaking is Ma’s strength, but plain blindness isn’t very attractive.

Regardless of whether it’s Chen’s black and white talk, or Ma’s plain talk, the people hearing the same “blindness” just won’t do. Enjoying the privilege of serving as the President, please just save your breath and put the people first.

退税經濟學

中國時報 - 2008.09.04 中時小社論

退税經濟學

全世界經濟景氣都差，各國政府現在流行「退稅救經濟」。先是美國吹起退稅號角，之後，新加坡、香港、南韓、日本、中國大陸等亞洲國家，或者已經退稅，或者即將退稅。

　四條小龍，三條退稅，剩下台灣還沒退。於是，包括在野黨，各方頗跑出不少聲音，呼籲政府退稅救經濟。

　經濟學上，針對搶救景氣，有兩派主要學說。一派稱為貨幣學派，主張用利率、匯率等金融手段，反制景氣循環。另一派稱為凱因斯學派，主張透過增發公債、擴大公共建設支出，提振景氣。

　有很長一陣子，貨幣學派在美國是顯學，所以，總是靠聯邦準備理事會，透過升降利率，調節經濟。總之，景氣太熱往上衝，物價走高之際，就調升利率；反之，景氣蕭條往下走，物價穩定之際，則是降低利率。

　不過，當前世界經濟走勢邪氣，竟然是漲價與蕭條一起來，成為「停滯性通貨膨脹」，利率升也不是，降也不是，貨幣學派玩不轉了。於是，中央銀行（聯準會）一邊涼快去，換財政部上場，改走凱因斯學派路線。

　於是乎，就跑出了發鈔票退稅行動，指望老百姓拿了錢，大方花光，刺激消費，增長經濟。問題是，大環境還是冷灶一個，就算放把火，也是只曇花一現，燒個幾 分鐘熱度，就復歸冷寂。各國政府其實已經技窮，但又不能不有所作為，於是，只好退稅發鈔票，表示點心意。台灣退不退稅，基本上，跑不出這個框框。

Tax-refund economics

The world economy is in recession. Each country’s government is taking to tax refunds to save their economies. First it’s America tooting the tax-refund horn, then it’s Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, China and the other Asian countries. They’ve either already issued refunds or about to.

Among the four Asian tigers, three have already issued tax refunds. Taiwan remains the only one that hasn’t. Due to this, there are calls from all sides, including the DPP, to issues a rebate to restart the economy.

In terms of economics, when pulling an economy out of a slump, there are two main schools of thought. The first school, called Monetarism, advocates using interest rates, exchange rates and other financial means to counteract the downturn in the economic cycle. The other school, called Keynesianism, advocates using deficit spending to increase government expenditure in order to revive the economy.

For a long time, Monetarism was the dominant school in America. Due to this, there was a constant reliance on the Federal Reserve. Through the raising and lowering of the interest rates they were able to make adjustments to the economy. If the economy started to overheat and prices started to rise, the Fed would raise rates. If the economy started moving towards recession and prices stayed stable, then the Fed would lower rates.

However, the current world economy is very unhealthy with both rising prices and recession appearing together, so-called “stagflation.” Increasing interest rates won’t help, decreasing rates also doesn’t work. The monetarists have nowhere to turn. In response, the Fed while has quietly moved to change the management at the Department of the Treasury to move towards a Keynesianist approach.

Due to this, they rushed to get out rebate checks in the hopes that taxpayers would take the money and go spend it all, jumpstarting consumption and growing the economy. The problem it’s still like a cold stove. Even if you light it, it’s still only a flash in the pan, it’ll burn for a few minutes and then go out. Each country is already helping the poor, but they can’t not take some extra action, so they’ve issued rebates to show they care. In deciding to whether to issues rebates, Taiwan can’t escape these fundamentals.